Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 516431783 to Liu 2015a

2021-01-26T16:08:51Z

Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 516431783 to Liu 2015a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == This dissertation investigates predictability in strategic air traffic management with a focus on ground delay programs (GDPs). Through a survey of flight ope..."

2021-01-26T16:08:44Z

Created page with " == Abstract == This dissertation investigates predictability in strategic air traffic management with a focus on ground delay programs (GDPs). Through a survey of flight ope..."

New page

== Abstract ==

This dissertation investigates predictability in strategic air traffic management with a focus on ground delay programs (GDPs). Through a survey of flight operators, we confirm the proposition that flight operators care about predictability. We then develop models that incorporate predictability into GDP cost optimization after failing in finding an existing model that can serve this purpose. This is accomplished by modifying traditional GDP delay cost functions so that they incorporate predictability, and determining the sensitivities of the optimal planned capacity recovery time and associated cost to the unpredictability premiums included in the cost functions. To do this, we develop two stochastic GDP models: a GDP no-revision, or static, model; and a GDP revision, or dynamic, model considering one GDP revision. GDP scope, which matters only in the revision model, is also considered. The optimization results from the case study show that the cost of unpredictability clearly matters, particularly in the more realistic case where GDP revision is allowed. Of the two unpredictability cost parameters, the one for unplanned delay has a stronger impact than the one for planned un-incurred delay. The insights from this analysis might eventually be used to develop a decision support tool that air traffic managers could use in determining what the planned end time should be for a GDP in a manner that reflects the importance of predictability to flight operators.

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3g29030r http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/3g29030r],
: [http://n2t.net/ark:/13030/m50p43fv http://n2t.net/ark:/13030/m50p43fv]

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Liu 2015a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 516431783 to Liu 2015a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == This dissertation investigates predictability in strategic air traffic management with a focus on ground delay programs (GDPs). Through a survey of flight ope..."